EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE THROUGH ORGANISED DEBATES ON SOCIAL MEDIA, CHANGING ITS FORM FROM FORCE TO REASON.

The Force of Argument and not the Argument of force. Changing the Cameroons social media debate form from force to reason.

In an intellectual exchange that took place between young Leaders of The Cameroons, comprising of; Ateh Thompson, Mark Bareta, Atanga Marcelius, Arrey Martins, Akoson Raymond and Ashu Shamy, reacting to an article published by Ateh Thompson about the reasons and benefits for AFRICA increasing business relations with China at this time of China’s currency, the Yuan has been devalued by 4.4%.

ATEH THOMPSON

ASHU SHAMY

BARA MARK

  

AKOSON RAYMOND

ATANGA MARCELIUS

ARREYMARTINS

                 INTRODUCTION

This piece of compilation sets forth a series of facts and personal view points that can educate people, students, researchers, economists, government policies and nations on how to react to the devaluation of the chinese yuan, vis a vis the conduct of trade deals between Africa as an emerging economy with China. The debate does not set out to cast out any anger or bitterness to every view advanced, but it simply an intellectual exchange. A closer follow up of the debate will take us into a deeper understanding on how to carry out a constructive debate in various platforms; the social media especially Facebook, TV, radio and any other platform. This exchange shows that in a well-organized intellectual setting, persons could drop out the force of argument and adopt the argument of force and reason.

THE CORE OF THE DEBATE  

Ateh Thompson observed in his article that, upon all the times Africa has been into trade with China, this is the best moment Africa could reap huge benefits from such business relations. He stated thus; “........doing business with China has never been more better.Go for it now Advanced so many reasons why this assertion is true and why African economies should go for it, more than ever before.  It is good business!". Ateh.

The underlying reasons for this exchange were to confirm the veracity of Ateh’s declaration that indeed, the devaluation of the Yuan provides a better business opportunity for African countries dealing with China. Whereas, contrast to that assertion that; such a statement is not apt, and so, it wouldn’t be advisable for Africans to intensify business deals with China at during this devaluation period, necessitated the debate that followed. The point of Objection was sponsored by Ashu Shamy.

 Reacting to Ateh’s post, Ashu Shamy, made the first reaction and reacted directly to the assertion. Ashu reacted to as such; 

ASHU:

“You've put it so well and your analyses are superb. Let me come closer to your most authoritative assertion It is true the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan currently has no direct impact(s) on the African economies and Cameroon in particular. And as a true economist that you are, it is quite convincing to state as such... This is very true sir. I couldn't have argued or agreed further. But from a layman's point of view as mine, I do believe that….such benefits will only sustain but in  short and not in the long run…bearing in mind that the goods are priced in USD and not yuan, it will be expensive for China to buy our African raw materials as rubber, platinum copper etc. The inability to purchase these raw materials will cause a huge decrease in demand and the demand curve will be shifted to the left. Meaning while our economies will suffer heavily from poor supplies due to the reduction in demand from China causing a complete shift of the supply curve to the left. We know the direct implications of that in Macro economics".

Mr Mark Bareta, came forth with his reaction. He put this forth;  

Bara Mark:

“if African goods are price in the dollar, this means you have less dollar, you buy more yuan then that means buying more goods…that means more goods will be exported from China, the higher more goods are exported, its economy becomes buoyant. The problem is that, how would these goods bought cheaper than before influence homemade products? Therefore government which catching on this devaluation should protect local home made products and companies".

Coming back to the point, Mr Ateh reacts quickly. He said:

Ateh Thompson:

 “Governments therefore must, in taking advantage of these current economic realities protect their home industries with rigorous policies save guards in the areas of exchange rates and foreign pricing. Strength in agric business must be a necessary inclination and industrialization remaining a clear and persistent country objective, precisely in transformation and packaging. These will ensure sustainability and their employability, of home based companies with an urge over the crushing imports that really appear less costly and attractive to consumers."

It didn’t end at that as Ashu comes back in with another submission in defense to his opinion that the business should not be encouraged.

He put this forth; 

Ashu:

“let us turn the table around changing the trend of supply and demand. It is widely accepted that Africa is the highest receiver nowadays of Chinese made products, which makes Chinese the major supplier and Africa the main Buyer. Taking it as common place knowledge, now considering the reduction in demand due to the inability to purchase the USD to buy the African raw materials like rubber per se, which constitute one of the major consumption products from China so far, don't u think it will affect its production? Chinese manufacturers off course will have little available rubber to supply the vast and hungry African markets. To me, i do believe that in the long run, most of these Manufacturers will have to run out of materials, there will be an increase in the cost of production especially the variable costs, which will imply that most of the companies will even have to go out of the market, lay off workers. It might even cause a collapse of the Sino African trade route. The vast and hungry African Market will have to stay hungry and in the event to rush out of the fixed, they will sought other markets elsewhere, probably going back to Europe and USA. It will not be a very good deal therefore if we will have to consider varied options.”

As a continuous intellectual process, Akoson Raymond make a sharp input; He view it as such.

Akoson Raymond:

“I tackle the debate from a very lay man bird view;.. the issue with a 'not a long term win for Africa' is commendable. However, I believe that any economic opportunities for Africa should be, at this time -- sought as 'the fastest bird picking the fattest worm' than the 'patient dog eating the fattest bone' sort of comparison. I strongly believe that the negativities registered by Africa as a result of this devaluation of the Yuan very much pales in comparison to the positivities.”

Arrey Martins came up with a view as such: 

Arrey:

 “One thing we should learn is that once a country has good economic footing, it can devalue or determine the strength of its currency at any time. China deliberately devalue it currency to make its good cheaper in the US market. Thou it had a consequence (good or bad) to Africa; their prime motive is an economic war with the US. By so doing, the will increase export to the US and reduce import to China. This will be very favorable to their balance of payment…they remain victor to this scheme. What can African learn from this? We devalue our currency but remain poorer. China devalues her currency but get richer". 

Quite enriching indeed, Ashu Comes back with further arguments in his defense. He posited thus.

Ashu: 

The USA shall be greatly touched with the depreciation of the yuan. This currency devaluation will make US Exports to be very expensive in China and the rest of the world and thereby, reduce US Exports and Foreign earnings, a drop in trade, the BOP, and off course a great harm to the US economy in the short run. But with China her goods will be less expensive and in high demand in the US and foreign markets, meaning a booster to China's economy. China is out to measure its level of competitiveness in the World market with its cheap products getting a higher purchase value than US products, in way that completely damages the US exports out of the world market. At a time when the US Dollar tries to regain its command and strength in the world, in a way that will completely dominate every other currency, China quickly reacts to cause a huge blow to the currency. The Yuan devaluation within these few days running has caused major collapse in currencies … in Asia especially in the south east. Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, etc. It seems to me that, a currency war is at the verge of emerging, and this will not be very good for struggling economies around the world. Africa, being one of the main struggling economies, will not find this exchange rate issue a favorable platform for trade with China at least after now despite the huge financial gains that are available at the moment. Cameroonians in the Diaspora contribute enormously to the Cameroon economy through Foreign exchange and trade between different areas of the world. Ask a person in Malaysia who used to send down few thousand Ringgit down to Cameroon for the family to receive a huge western union package, will tell you that between 2 days ago and today, he sent that same few Ringgit he used to send, just for the family to receive a lesser amount, just within hours, telling us how it might be in the nearest future. The write up by Mr Ateh is well put and I tally with it albeit for the lone fact that, it might not be beneficial to Africa in the long run. But concerning trade between China and the US and other European countries, I must say, it is the best thing China has done to safe its economy and to make its position in the world more exposed to respect and trust that the US counterparts. Currency depreciation is an area of Monetary policy which is often times ignored by most governments, because of the adverse effects it might bring within the period of devaluation or whatever the case may be. As you Mr Arrey rightly put it; "What can African leaders learn from this?". 

Bara, came again with his views: 

Bara: 

“China is at it best . Let us see how it turns out. The truth is that USA will feel it but the foundation of USA economy is so strong that it will not totally be an issue
What does this mean to Africa now and in the long run. Already, you have remittances received in Africa as being dropped from Asia etc”

It didn’t just end with Bara Mark, as Mr Ateh came on again:

Ateh: 

 “…Truth is our continent must lead their own economic revolution. China's control over her currency remains a great strength they have, even made stronger by the very fact that they are the world’s economic power. Devaluing their currency is just the right thing to do so because, as a trade centre in this era, need exist to concentrate demand towards decongesting their ever increasing supplies amidst other competitors. …China has leaved in industrialization and mass production for several years now and it is the demand side they sick controlling, no longer so much the supply side of it. Our continent-- which is the next stop after Asia in development--to survive should China continue its currency deviance, must lead their own economic revolution. we produce raw materials but don't have control over the prices in the international, we export raw and import finished at double and even triple their prices, we value international and forget the eminence of originality vested in the typicality of our Africanness. Well structured markets, encouraging industrial policies, and conducive taxing in a corruption free environment could be that trick. …if Agriculture becomes prioritized and mechanization, a must with the tertiary at fore, higher tendencies exist for requisite product transformation and supply towards serving not only the national but also the international. In its most basic sense say; cutting back on the importation of say; rice, or flour and biscuits because cassava and potatoes is being manufactured at home for the national and international markets, already offsets the BOP to some extent and even greater, should more of such actions in other sectors be prior .Trade blocks within Africa, in reinforcing trade policies with China at higher guarantees that they are advantaged is important. A current debate exist on the acquisition of an African currency so as to affix their parities directly with any currency in the world without necessarily standing on the others and yet not being vulnerable. that too, though almost impossible could be the start of a solution. In a nutshell, Three aspects are important. Mechanization and heavy industrialization, product transformation with an eye on international competitiveness, Packaging and marketing; if African's can focus on these trio, the'll not survive but avail any such tendencies from what ever source… if the United States retaliates to this offensive by China, the entire world could be affected. the question then is, to what direction could she possibly retaliate ; But how much shocks to the world lamely could be explained to you by the number of deals world wide, literally transacted in dollars".

So great an intellectual exchange, Akoson Raymond comes forth again.

Akoson:

" We understand how catastrophic such a devaluation would be for the US economy. Much as all these markets are inextricably bound, we should look at the implication of this move on our own economy -- the African economy. And I add that the underlined trajectory for Africa to take must be to seek ways to finish their products and sell at very competitive rates. African politicians must also work towards concluding on a unique currency."

Ashu comes with a quick reaction to Mr Raymond:

Ashu:

 “a unique currency is a giant but far fetch dream to attain in Africa even in the years to come Mr Akoson. A unique currency will change a lot of things in fact the entire social, economic and geopolitical status quo of the entire Continent. It is a fine move but unattainable one considering the huge considerations to be taken in place. I do believe that Individual economies can work out good economic plans that can take them forward and in extension, the whole continent. But the real set back today to such economic breakthrough to me is the adoption and concentration in politics and Western democracy rather than adopting the direction of trade, commerce and entrepreneurship. Instead of building industries, markets and. Companies in the 21st century, Africans are busy building up political parties, civil Society organizations and pressure groups. it is quite sad. we prefer to have one man one vote fully observed than one man one cassava. It’s quite a pity my people".

Mr Atanga Marcelius comes finally to sum it up.

Atanga:

  “Interesting discussion from all angles, but the most important factor remains: Only a nation that has control over it political system can intend control it national institutions ( economy, health, education,,,) Unfortunately most African leaders are seated by the west under the new international model, thus they have control over all variables. There is no national economy policy that is not nested in the IMF model, Most newly Elected African presidents will have to go pay homage to their (king maker) in the name of official visits, Ebola breaks out in Africa, research for vaccines is done in the USA and Europe,,,,who are they fooling?????
"You can fool some people sometime, but you cannot fool all the people all the time" BOB

                 CONCLUSION:

Knowledge is a continual process and to get it, means bringing forth new ideas to better understand the ways things happen and how we must respond to how things happen when they happen.

Everybody must try to contribute to knowledge in his/her own personal and unique way so that the scope of knowledge can be widened and extended further from where we stand today. Instead of recycling knowledge, we should extend knowledge.

The different viewpoints so advanced by various contributors in this whole process are a clear indication that indeed, we can build forth new knowledge. In a typical intellectual exchange, there are no winners and losers. Everybody is a learner.

Compiled by: Ashu Shamy. LL.B

Published: Cameroonvision.blogspot.com

August 15^th 2015.